The Break-Even Formula
Break-even is the sales volume at which total revenue exactly equals total cost. Below it you are funding the business out of capital; above it, each additional sale adds its full contribution margin to profit.
Formula
Break-even units = Fixed costs ÷ Contribution margin
Margin of safety = (Expected − Break-even) ÷ Expected
Margin of safety is the number most people skip, and it is often the most informative. It tells you how far sales can fall before you start losing money. A business breaking even at 900 units and expecting 1,000 has a 10% margin of safety — a modest bad quarter wipes out the profit entirely.
Classifying Your Costs
The arithmetic here is trivial. Getting a useful answer depends almost entirely on sorting costs into the right bucket, and that is where most break-even analyses go wrong.
Fixed — you pay it whether you sell anything or not
Rent, salaried staff, insurance, accounting fees, software subscriptions, equipment leases, your own drawings if you take a fixed amount.
Variable — it only exists because you made a sale
Raw materials, manufacturing cost per unit, packaging, shipping, payment processing fees, sales commission, per-order fulfilment charges.
Mixed — the ones that cause trouble
Utilities, hourly staff and some software plans have a base charge plus a usage component. Split them: put the base amount in fixed costs and the per-unit portion in variable. Lumping a mixed cost entirely into either bucket is the single most common source of a misleading break-even figure.
What This Model Assumes
Break-even analysis is a straight-line model, and it holds only within a limited range. It assumes the selling price stays constant however many you sell, that variable cost per unit does not change with volume, and that fixed costs stay fixed.
In reality, volume discounts lower unit costs as you scale, discounting to win larger orders lowers the effective price, and fixed costs step upward when you outgrow premises or need another hire. Treat the result as accurate near your current volume and increasingly rough the further you project from it. If you are modelling a tenfold increase, rebuild the inputs rather than trusting the line.